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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: mishedlo who wrote (22943)2/5/2005 12:54:04 PM
From: John Vosilla  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
<The most accurate predictor of a recession is an inverted yield curve in which short-term rates are higher than long-term ones. The United Kingdom is already facing this as its 3-month interest rates are 4.72% and 10-year rates are 4.55%. I foresee the United States having an inverted yield curve by the end of the year if the Fed continues down its rapid tightening path.>

What is perplexing is with an inverted yield curve and housing starting to collapse in UK yet it's stock market is at its highs.
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