FEB 14th could spell broken Hearts for Google investors.
65% of the stocks float has been in lock up but will be free to be sold at that date as corporate insiders who have been Google stock rich for 6 months can actually realize their gains.
That is 177,000,000 shares suddenly available to be sold!
Look what happened back in November when only 39.1 million ( 22.5% of 177,000,000 ) shares came available . . .
Google Stock Slips as New Shares Hit Market
Price Is Still More Than Double IPO's
By David A. Vise
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, November 17, 2004; Page E05
Google Inc. stock dropped more than 6 percent yesterday as tens of millions of new shares held by early investors and employees of the search engine giant became available for sale for the first time.
The stock price fell $12.33, to $172.55, on heavy volume yesterday. About 20.9 million shares changed hands, nearly double the 11.9 million shares that traded on Monday.
When the company went public in August, it placed restrictions on trading by early investors and laid out a six-month timetable for when they could sell. Those restrictions were lifted on 39.1 million new shares yesterday, a block that exceeded the 22.5 million shares sold in Google's initial public offering in August. In the months ahead, more than 200 million additional shares are slated to become available for sale, with the biggest chunk of stock becoming available in February.
Since no public disclosure of sales is required for about a month, it will likely be weeks before it is clear whether Google co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page, the company's two biggest stockholders, were among the sellers yesterday, and, if they were, how much they sold. That same uncertainty holds true for other Google employees and early investors.
Around the Google campus, however, some employees have vowed to cash in at least a portion of their holdings to diversify their investments and minimize the risk that the price may fall. Many still remember missing opportunities to sell pricey stock they held in other Internet firms several years ago, shares that subsequently collapsed after being high-fliers. Some said they want to avoid getting caught on the wrong end of another boom-bust cycle.
After a meteoric rise in its stock price since August, Google has a total stock market value of more than $50 billion. The company went public at $85 a share. Since then, the stock has traded as high as $201.60 before dropping back into its current trading range. As recently as last week, the stock was trading in the mid-$160s.
The leading Internet search engine, Google is used by millions of computer users to find information and answers to their questions swiftly online. The company profits almost entirely through the sale of online advertising related to search requests.
Google stock is trading for more than 200 times its per-share profit, leading some analysts to caution investors that it appears overvalued. Those fears were stoked last week when rival Microsoft Corp. released an early version of a competing search engine.
washingtonpost.com
Upcoming Google ( GOOG ) Lockup period expirations are believed to be as follows:
December 15, 2004 - 24.9 million shares
January 14, 2005 - 24.9 million shares
February 14, 2005 - The last lockup period could bring 176.8 million shares on the market.
I don't know about that last one..
A 25 million share lockup expiration caused a 6% drop. Does that mean that a 175 million share lockup expiration will cause a 42% drop?
That would sink the price to $116 per share off of $200.
stockcharts.com[r,a]declynay[dd][pc13!c34!f][iut!ub14!le8,24,8!lk20!lv20!lp14,3,3][j19701967,y]&listNum=1
Compare the chart to the date of release of stock. Nov 17th pretty big drop, Dec 15th little affect, Jan 15th big drop. Feb 14th release of stock for trading will be over 4 times larger and I would reason that it would ber the stock of the low men on the Google totem pole and thus more likely to cash in some of their new found wealth
All in my honest opinion of course. DYDD but this looks like an opportunity |
