China's Lunar New Year chaos raises economic questions
SHANGHAI : Many agree that China's Lunar holidays have a stimulating effect on some sectors of the economy, but others are questioning the wisdom of an occasion that virtually brings the country to a halt.
The upcoming annual week-long break is not just a traditional celebration to herald the Chinese New Year but one of three "golden week" holidays created by the government to boost the consumer economy.
Drawn up 10 years ago, the policy was designed to guarantee workers time off and shift some of the economic burden from the government to citizens.
For tourism and retail industries the policy has been relatively successful, with many travel agencies booking some 10 percent of annual revenues in the week-long holiday period.
"It's hugely important for the company and me, this is where I make a lot of my money," said Jiang Jing, a manager at Shanghai Metropole Tea Travel Agency.
"The three golden weeks account for 30 percent of our annual revenues," said Jiang, who will work through the holiday without a break.
For retailers like French giant Carrefour the 60 days surrounding the Spring Festival period, as it is also called, means cash registers will ring up 20 percent of the store's gross annual sales, said Zhang Lixia, a spokeswoman for the company in Shanghai.
Although many acknowledge the golden weeks boost parts of the economy, some say they strain the nation's transport system to its limit while shutting down large parts of the country.
"The golden weeks stimulate consumption in a big way and promote the holiday economy, but it also pressures and wastes social resources," said Xingye Securities analyst Wang Chun.
Analysts say the massive movement of people in the most populous country places a huge burden on the supply and demand chains of certain areas of the world's fastest growing major economy.
"The mass consumption occurring all at once has caused severe conflicts between demand and supply, especially for tourism destinations, services and transportation," said Zhang Guangrui, director of the Tourism Research Center of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Over the past decade China has grown wealthier and more people take the Lunar, Labour Day (March) and National Day (October) holidays, which means nearly a fifth of humanity is off work simultaneously.
For seven days, three times a year, the government and most companies in China come to a standstill, as workers travel home to families or head to tourist destinations.
As Chinese augur in Year 4,702 -- the Year of the Rooster in the Chinese calendar -- from Wednesday, more than 200 million people are likely to be on the move, the equivalent of half of Europe's population hitting the road at once.
"People are now trying to figure out how to solve the problems caused by this mass tourism and consumption," said Zhang. "But the conflicts between demand and supply are really hard to solve, especially the difficulties with the railway system."
During this year's Lunar New Year, China's transport network, roads, rails, air and marine routes are expected to record a staggering 1.97 billion journeys, up 3.5 percent from last year.
So problematic have the golden weeks become that the State Council, China's cabinet, has held meetings to discuss the possible cancellation of the May and October breaks, sparking massive debate about how holiday periods should be allocated, media reports have said.
"The golden week has enhanced holiday awareness, but it remains to be researched just how much the golden weeks have really driven overall consumption," Zhang said.
- AFP
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