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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: regli who wrote (25942)	2/7/2005 9:16:32 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) of 110194

<I appreciate Henry's comments.> Agree completely. This is an issue that requires close monitoring. I can visualize a pandemic becoming the primary economic event of 05, or the winter of 05-06, in heartbeat. If so the cognoscenti will have to quickly rework their playbooks. One outcome is that it could just bottleneck everything, and really create shortages combined with diminished economic activity. Picture emptied out factory floors in Asia for example. It will have a great effect on transportation and social intercourse, which in turn will lead to a whole daisy chain reaction. If there were high enough fatality rates in congested urban areas, it might create labor shortages as well. In western countries especially it will put a huge strain on already overburdened health care costs. Imagine what ten million (or even a million) serious cases of deadly influenza in the US would do to the Medicare system? May be time to start gaming this out some?

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