Strictly Buy and Sell Set Ups Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly Buy and Sell Set Ups

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To: kodiak_bull who wrote (2181)	2/7/2005 8:28:07 PM
From: bull_derrick	Read Replies (1) of 13449

Yeah, Kodiak, I think we go that far back now. It was 1998 when I first started buying the OSX and lurking those boards. I think it was 3 months of lurking before my first post. Speaking of thinking, I agree with you in a general sort of way. I try to trade on macroeconomic trends more than charts and I tend to be too early. What is plain for me to see, ie that 85 cent gasoline and massive layoffs in the oil patch are unsustainable and that sooner or later the nation is going to get into a pinch for energy, wasn't that plain for the market to see for quite awhile and so there I was-for about 6 months too soon and underwater on the OSX. Now as we know, the story had a very happy ending, but I admit that I see the trend too soon and generally enter too soon. I've tried to adjust, of course, and that's why I wasn't shorting TOL or buying puts when it was 40 or 45 or 50. Is it still too soon? Maybe. Will I make a profit within the next 11 months on the 2006 puts? I think the chances are 75-80% on the 2006 puts and 100% on the 2007 puts.

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