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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (25975)2/7/2005 11:17:32 PM
From: regli  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
I am fascinated how the Administration is portraying SS as THE program we cannot afford. As a country we have many obligations, the question is always which ones we single out as the ones we can or cannot afford.

There are many programs including many in the DoD where we have long-term obligations. It is simply a choice as to which ones we decide are unaffordable due to other priorities. The political view point generally tilts the view as to which ones should be cut or abolished unless the obligations are simply overwhelming.

What is going on here is simply disingenuous. It is obvious that private accounts will not solve the social security problem but it is portrayed as such. If the debate were honest, we would debate if increased investment in stocks improves the health of the economy and therefore in turn the health of the social safety net.

It should be obvious to all that it is an illusion to think that the elderly can stay in the workforce as long as they choose. Given the productivity improvements we have seen over the past 20 years (and I don’t care if they result from off-shoring or automation), there is no question in my mind that we are looking at a smaller workforce participation rate in the future. Advances in computing technologies as well as applied technologies will bring this about. Our evolution cannot compete with the speed of technology advancement as indicated by Moore’s law. Just try to double your transistors every two years <g>.

This simply means that over time the workforce will shrink as a percentage of the population and that we will be faced with a very different set of problems. In fact, I put into question the thought that we have a demographics problem. What we will face is a skill and intellect problem as the vast majority of the people will not be able to participate in the specialized labor pool due to their inability to provide added value over artificial intelligence.

We are attempting to predict a future state of SS based on the conditions of labor and the markets today. The world will look drastically different in 15 to 50 years. To think that magically the clock of the technology revolution will slow or even stop is simply naïve.
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