I really like this student.
Terrorism Unveiled
Commentary on the War on Terror from the perspective of a college undergrad studying security, the Middle East and Arabic.
The Fact of the Matter
By Athena on Analysis & Opinion
About Syria, Dr. Rice made this statement:
"I cannot say it strongly enough. You cannot say on the one hand that you want a process of peace and on the other hand support people who are determined to blow it up."
In my opinion, Syria is the current biggest threat in the region, even more so that Iran (assuming they are quite a few years off from developing a nuclear weapon).
Why? Syria is the one state that can upset the balance of power in the region. It can eliminate the possibility of a fledgling Iraq to become stable, it continues to offer no refugee status to Palestinians which makes the repatriation of long-time descendents of Palestinian origin to Palestine that much more of a goal (and "right of return" problem), and I feel there is a real threat for Assad losing power to his military.
If Iraq does not become stable because Syria keeps intermingling, Iran has an excuse to continue its iron grip on the freedom of its people citing that democracy offers no cure to woes. Iran also will not have to contend with another Shia regime, that will be much more tolerant, and thus much more appealing to its citizens. If the Shia in Iran see the freedom of the Shia in Iraq, the Iran's strict governing structure will be deposed and its very possibly that the Iranians will finally (as especially the student groups have wanted) revolt.
So Syria has a real stake in this, by keeping the balance of power as it is. If Iraq "falls" to freedom, Iran will eventually as well. It's the reverse-domino effect. And freedom in this sense means, most likely, Shia leadership. That challenges the Sunni dominated Syria, and its level of control in the region.
Syria continues to use the Palestinian people as pawns. It condemns Israel and wants the removal of the Israeli state and trumps the cause of Arab nationalism, yet offers no help to those Arabs that are in peril. Why should they, right? It's not Syria's fault that Israel moved on the map and Palestinians shifted to the country. Quite the immoral standpoint in my opinion. They use the "plight of the Palestinians" as fodder for their argument and ongoing hostilities with the Israeli state, continue to give no aid to them, despise that they come into their borders, yet take all the credit for "heralding the Palestinian cause." Perhaps a crude example, but it reminds me of a Pimp who requires money from his prostitutes, helps them marginally yet abuses them at the same time.
Syria is the one state bordering the area that still refuses to recognize Israel or sign a peace treaty. It's the one state that won't resign that this Israeli state is there and it's not going anywhere. This hardened stance won't help transform the region, because it ignores reality and relishes in pride.
I feel there is also the possibility that Assad could lose power to a military force. When I was in Syria, a lecturer briefly spoke about the very real possibility at a coup, but did not elaborate on it very much, especially since we were at the American Language Institute. Syrians have been oppressed for so many years. They will not discuss politics with you and are fearful of mentioning anything about the government in front of their own neighbors. Nobody knows who works for the police-state. Indeed, many people work for the intelligence bureau in some capacity. At the hotel I stayed in, most men loved to show off their mukhabarat (intel agency) cards and boast about working for the government.
One night when many of us American kids arranged to eat with Syrian students learning English, I sat beside a guy, who earlier in the day, had been picked up by the mukhabarat from his class and interrogated. He came to dinner later than most, and before he was there, a different girl sat beside me who was soon coming to the US to go to University. She seemed like a nice enough girl, but little did I know, she was the one who had turned him in earlier in the day (apparently she was jealous that he liked another girl and not her). Her father was someone important, so she simply spread the word around that he was saying things against the government. That sort of fear can without a solution can resign a society to inaction, but make them hope for better. If a military person were to come in, and signal that he would restructure such services, how much faith would the society put in him? It might be a welcome change, yet a turn for the worst.
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