Scott, re your
post which included 4 or 5 things that give Apple a better chance now than before.
Very nicely stated.
Also, it is good to see that Apple's management is making decisions (the Power Computing deal) even if it is only to undo some of the actions they see as mistakes made earlier.
If Apple was getting $50 per clone, and truly feels that they could have sold almost as many boxes without the clones as with them, then closing off the cloning is smart. The cloners did serve the needed function of giving Apple's engineers red ears, as the cloners apparently brought out capable machines faster than Apple.
Apple does seem consigned to niche markets for the forseeable future, due to their low market share and the aversion to them in most businesses. (This means I think they lost the VHS-Betamax battle.) If they have their cost act together, this should not matter much for their survival and continued development.
As an investor (not a technologist) I think that the niche market issue suggests flattish sales, with an expectation of reasonable profits once they get their infrastructure sized properly for their business levels.
Assuming Apple prices do not get too high either absolutely or relatively, current Apple aficionados seem to have a clear and rewarding upgrade path. (Not board upgrades, but buy-a-new-machine upgrades.) This should keep them happy and keep Apple in business.
Potential longer shot positives:
1. The Wintels face a technological hurdle in getting their machines to actually make use of higher clock speeds. The fractured nature of the Wintel hardware may make this transition difficult, and give Apple a better shot.
2. If the maintenance is actually cheaper for Macs in big business environments, this may come out and make them a sort of alternative to network PCs or thin clients or whatever. Most people would rather work with a PC than a terminal.
PS I'm ecstatic today because my Win95 machines didn't crash all day. |
