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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 76.28-0.8%3:18 PM EST

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To: Eric who wrote (67001)2/9/2005 7:15:50 PM
From: Amy J  Read Replies (2) of 77400
 
Eric, if revenue is 12% and assuming they are able to achieve this for 5 years with a peg of 1.5, loosely assume 15% profit + 5% buy back = 20%, * 1.5 = 30, pe * eps $.79 = ~$23. The current stock price appears to be assuming dilution & no buy back or a peg lower than 1.5.

WS appears to be negative on hightech but after the dotcom crash, who can blame them. Some performance numbers on other industry sectors (click performance):

Bush's buddies: Defense 10-year annual return 17.21%
personal.fidelity.com

Select Natural Gas Portfolio
1 Year 44.26%
personal.fidelity.com

I remember back when Natural Gas (or was it the Energy fund) had a dismal 10-year annual return around 3% to 5% (back when inflation was higher than today too.) It's current 10 year return is 15.20%. But I would not bet on past performance.

personal.fidelity.com

Greenspan's buddies:
personal.fidelity.com

Given what t2 said about the lack of inflow last year and tech being out of favor, probably means the mo-mos aren't in this to the degree they were in csco previously, which would suit me fine. Rather see the stock go up due to results than due to mo-mos.

Regards,
Amy J
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