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Technology Stocks : Alphabet Inc. (Google)
GOOGL 304.31+0.6%2:05 PM EST

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To: Brandon who wrote (851)2/10/2005 11:55:40 AM
From: olivier asser  Read Replies (4) of 15857
 
No argument from me. GOOG is a risky trade any way you slice it at these levels. I knew that going in. (At least this time the risks were known and disclosed ;-).)

GOOG broke down today below it's 50dma and the analyst day did not go well yesterday. I was counting on a big bounce after that but....NONE. I believe in GOOG LT but short-term I gave up on calls and reversed this am. I mean, what are they doing: they had a presentation by the GOOG CHEF...but NOT BY THEIR CFO! What the...? I thought CEO Eric Schmidt was very impressive, but Sergey Brin was terrible, not convincing at all, stumbled over many questions. In fact, when there was a glitch in the presentation he said something like "the problem is we have to use our own equipment." Hello? Larry Page was better than Brin, but not by much. Omid Kordestani was excellent - he is point man on revenues especially internationally - but he came on last, and by then the damage was done. Then today WSJ and NYT come out with highly damaging articles about how virtually no finances were discussed and especially WSJ hammered on GOOG's admission that they are having problems finding enough qualified talent to come in and therefore expansion is not where it should be. Maybe a hint, a warning that this will take longe, maybe an EPS miss in the near-term? Maybe. Then again, there were warnings before Q4 came out and we saw how they did.

The market is indicating sell. When the dust settles, we'll see, bit right now I believe GOOG is going a lot lower. Down 16 from the highs before the analyst day is not good. Then again, risk is that Monday there is no selloff and then we rocket. IMO, either way GOOG is going to make a big move the next 10 days, and certainly into March.

I still think that with GOOG too good of a legit case can be made for it to go higher to be short. But, too good of a legit case can be made for it to go lower in order to be long. It's a stock that's going to move
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