Maurice, more nonsense and wishful dreaming from Stratfor, and if they represent the best analysis, then ... uck ... is your portfolio ready ? Mine isn't, not really.
stratfor.biz
Russia: Angling for a Role in a North Korean Drama
Feb 10, 2005
Summary
Russia will try to assume an active role in the developing imbroglio over North Korea's statement Feb. 10 that it possesses nuclear arms. The Kremlin sees both risks and opportunities in this globally important development. While taking measures to protect its security, Moscow also will try to use North Korea's announcement to ease geopolitical pressure from Washington and redefine U.S.-Russian relations. This attempt likely will fail.
Analysis
As a North Korean neighbor, Russia has grave concerns about escalating tensions between the United States and North Korea following North Korea's Feb. 10 announcement that it has produced nuclear weapons. From Russia's official statements, it is impossible to tell how Moscow will respond. So far, Russia has said only that, while it understands the country's security concerns, it regrets that North Korea made the statement.
Russia's concern is based on the possibility of a military conflict on its borders, the chances of which became significantly higher Feb. 10 than they were the day before. Russians are convinced North Korea is not bluffing. Russian intelligence has long maintained that North Korea has four to six nuclear weapons. Military and political sources in the Russian government say it is possible that North Korea has managed to almost double its supply of nuclear weapons in the last year. On the other hand, Russians do not see U.S. President George W. Bush, in his second term, having a second thought about ordering a missile attack against North Korea, which could result in nuclear war.
In fact, Moscow is so concerned that a U.S. strike against North Korea will come quickly, Russian military sources say, that Russian forces in the Far East were put on higher alert following North Korea's announcement. To avoid frightening the Russian people, and causing speculation abroad, Moscow made no public announcement of the heightened alert level, which is meant to prevent U.S. aircraft and missiles from violating Russian airspace en route to North Korea.
If the United States attacks North Korea, Russia is worried that the conflict -- including nuclear fallout -- could spill over into Russian territory. Russia also is concerned that the conflict may cause millions of North Koreans to flood into Russia's Far East, seriously affecting the country's security, demographic and even military situation in the region.
Moscow's greatest worry is its military weakness in the Far East, where the Pacific fleet is rusting, pilots cannot fly for lack of fuel and ground troops are underfed. If either side in a U.S.-North Korean conflict decided to take advantage of this weakness -- by over-flying Russian territory, say, or even demanding that aircraft or commandos be based on Russian soil -- Moscow would be hard-pressed to do much about it.
Russia also has a significant geostrategic concern that if the United States and North Korea go to war over North Korean nukes, U.S. forces will prevail and occupy North Korea, thus appearing on Russia's southeast doorstep and almost encircling the country. (U.S. and NATO troops are already in former Soviet Union [FSU] states along Russia's western and southern borders.)
So it is in Russia's best interests to become actively engaged in resolving the current crisis. By doing so, Moscow sees an opportunity not only to protect its interests in the Far East but also to redefine U.S.-Russian relations in light of the U.S.-led geopolitical offensive in the FSU, where pro-Moscow regimes are being neutralized one after the other.
With North Korea officially nuclear, Moscow believes, the United States will need Russia's help in dealing with the issue and may even take the six-party talks more seriously (Russians do not think the United States has in the past). Washington also might see the need to respect Russia's national interests and refrain from encouraging the kind of anti-government opposition in Russia that it has promoted in Ukraine and Georgia.
But Russian help with North Korea will not get it very far. It is not that Russia lacks the leverage, only that there are important factors that weaken it. One is that exercising some leverage, such as providing major new weapons systems to North Korea in return for some concession on nukes -- would defeat the purpose. Instead of receiving gratitude from the United States for easing the conflict, Moscow would receive Washington's ire for arming its enemy.
Another problem is that, while Russia has some tasty nonmilitary carrots to offer North Korea -- such as building a gas pipeline and trans-Korean railway -- these carrots are unlikely to be enough for North Korea, which sees the possession of nuclear arms as a matter of national survival. Stratfor believes Moscow could have some limited success in getting North Korea back to the negotiating table, but that would not be enough for Washington to reconsider its geopolitical advance on Russia.
Washington wants North Korea to renounce its nuclear program, and nothing Russia can do will accomplish that.
Copyright 2004 Strategic Forecasting Inc. All rights reserved.
Reprint Rights:
Articles from Stratfor may not be reproduced in multiple copies, in either print or electronic form, without the express written permission of Strategic Forecasting, Inc. For mass reprint permission or content licensing, please e-mail marketing@stratfor.com for more information.
|
