Jay,
Since the NK's fissionable materials appears to have originated with Pakistan's Khan, but come via China, do you think the US will try to 'punish' China?
What options do they have?
1. China wants more European arms (avionics). Let them buy them? or not?
2. Put a slowdown on US ports handling Chinese goods, which would hurt their export machine?
3. Pushback on Taiwan's independence.
4. Block China from accessing Canadian or Australian energy or materials they seek?
How can China punish NK?
1. Turn off the oil pipeline to NK?
Anything else?
How can the US punish NK?
1. Since most of the food aid (humanitarian aid used to be in the billions, now much less) goes to the NK military anyways, it probably shoud be cut
It seems the US does not have much leverage here.
I am sure NK's neighbors (Japan, etc) are not happy about NK's position. I am sure they are even more unhappier China let NK have this material. In terms of leadership in the region, then, Japan and others will not want to see China push on in expanding their power. (I see China has fortified near the NK border). Since Libya also appears to have been involved, I think Libya is lucky to have given up on their pursuit.
I must note, though, that while the US has its hands full dealing with Iraq and Iran, France is happy to sell avionics technology to China despite what China has done to advance NK's nuclear capabilities.
I think it is time to advance the rebalancing of my portfolio. Adding USD may be prudent, and we had better watch gold here. It has already moved, and we may not see sub-$400 now.
David |
