Sam, Re: “Why is it important to you to know "whether the analysts apprised their clients of this potential happening and the impact of such on their estimates / targets?"
A heightened curiosity of the goings-on of the “analyst” community over the last several years. A suspicion that they don’t “always” have the best interests of the individual investor in mind when writing their research reports, that perhaps their reports are designed more for short term price moves, than long –term investment objectives so as to –
1. stimulate more trading activity / generate brokerage profits.
2. support their institutional / hedge fund clients.
As I previously stated, I had a small investment in SYNA based on Gilder’s longer term vision of the Foveon technology. Most all of Gilder’s recommendations are longer term plays based on “the technology” and as such most of those companies have high PEs. I was intrigued to find that SYNA also could be considered a “value play”, based upon the “analysts” EPS and long-term growth estimates.
I added to my small position a week or so ago, and added a bit more on the recent drops, naively reasoning that a company with a 25 PE and a 28% long term growth rate (analyst consensus estimates) would not be likely to fall some 40% in a couple of days. I obviously relied too much on the “analysts” numbers / due diligence , and jumped at the “buying opportunity” without doing much DD on my part. Unfortunately the brokerage services I use do not provide SYNA reports.
It just appears to me that these “analysts” were caught just as “flat-footed” as I, and wonder it these “risks” were discussed at any length in their reports, or even mentioned to any degree.
I haven’t stepped on your toes, have I? |
