Actually, Don's moves have been entirely consistent with his view of apple. Because of that, he missed this large move that apple has made over the past several months and appears to have been wrong in the short term. Long term, it all depends on what happens with market share. Don doesn't feel optimistic about apple's chances so he sold on the success of the ipod. The present day shareholders think that apple will gain market share and traction because of the ipod and the new mini. Time will ultimately tell who is right over the appropriate time frame. Hard to find much fault with someone who exits a position with a profit though, even though they may have left a decent amount on the table.
Neal,
Don't entirely agree with your analysis. You are assuming that's Apple's rise from mid-30s to 81 is based only on expectations of future market share gains. I think the rise reflects largely, if not mostly, the profit stream from the iPod and expectations of same in the future. After all, most of that rise took place before the Mini was even introduced.
I think you are right about selling with a profit--but only *partly.* Every time I bought AAPL. I had a profit on the shares the next day, yet I would not think I made good decisions if I sold the next day.
The fact is, Apple is trading at $81+. Whatever your view or expectations, you would have been better off holding the past 3, 4, 5, 6, months. If you (not you personally) think Apple has gotten as high as it's going to get, then the proper move is to sell Monday morning, but there's no way I think it's possible to rationalize NOT holding onto Apple the past few months as a good/right investment move.
Kip |
