Hi SR,
Just a word of caution.
It is unlikely, but still quite possible that DISH will fail at support and fall out of the trading range. If so, it will be a good short because it will very likely fall back to former support.
If I were trading DISH, I would require two things before entry:
1. DISH must be trading above the 200 min ema on the 1 min chart. Currently, this is not the case. DISH did not confirm by setting a higher high and lower low, and instead fell back to test the 200 at the close.
139.142.147.22
2. DISH must exceed the high of the session on Friday.
That said, there is an alternative way I would consider trading DISH.
If you look on the 15 min intraday chart, you can see that the stochastics are signaling sell at the close.
139.142.147.22
But you can also see an upsloping trendline over the last two sessions. This is paralleled by a similarly upsloping series of lows on the stochastic.
This suggests to me that DISH will initially sell down to that level on Monday. If you extrapolate that trendline, DISH will again meet that trendline at about $30.20.
So... one way to trade DISH would be to lie in wait there. Watch for a big surge in volume as DISH trades down to that point. Wait for a clear reversal candle, followed immediately by volume suddenly evaporating, and a bullish candle forming with a higher high than the reversal candle. THAT would be the signal. At that time, you will see stochastic crossover confirmation as well.
One more caveat: I rarely enter or exit any trade during the first 10 minutes of trading. Also, it is very dangerous IMHO to anticipate the signals before they actually occur. Let DISH show it's hand. If it can't or won't, then move on to something that will. There will be no shortage of opportunities to trade DISH. Pick the best ones, don't settle for anything less. If that means you have to stay in cash, then stay in cash and go eat pizza and watch cartoons or whatever, but I think it is essential that you have high requirements for a stock. This significantly increases the probablities that you will be correct IMHO.
I think it helps to maintain a "whatever" attitude, or an attitude where you are just as willing to go long as you are to go short. Don't get suckered into a situation where the MMs are taking in retail buys and filling them at the ask just so they can go short, methodically walk down the bid, and take your lunch money. Never forget that they have a big advantage over you because they can see much more via the supers and so forth, and they know where all the stops and limits are, and they know where the retail interest is, and where the professional interest is and position themselves accordingly. Not infrequently, there is initial retail buy orders filled in a stock, but the professional interest is on the sell side. That's a dangerous situation for a long trader.
The conditions above cut through most of that stuff that retailers either have no way of knowing, or can only detect with some difficulty.
Best of luck,
T |
