Hi Reid,
This one does not qualify for the watch list because it is in transition I think. But it bears kind of "longer term" watching.
ALNY:
139.142.147.218
I've posted about this before, as you know. I was long the stock, but got stopped out last Thursday. I set a very tight stop because things started looking ominous to me, and I just didn't want to watch a profitable trade turn into a loser. And there is another reason.
I see the market as short-term bearish, as you know, and ALNY getting pulled down somewhat as well. If you look at this chart, then I think you'll see that a very nice buying opportunity may develop soon, as the 100 ema and lower BB rail rise up to meet chart support, all at right around $7.00.
139.142.147.218
At that time, the BBs should be nicely contracted. All of this will set the stage for a very strong move to the upside, and perhaps more importantly, the solid support there will significantly blunt downside risk.
We'll have to see how things develop, but if this happens, I'll be looking for an entry around $7.00. This time, I will look to sell half the position at a decent profit, then set a loose stop at no lower than breakeven on the other half and put it into the "forget about it" box with AAPL.
As you know, I normally regard good stories with a very big grain of salt. But ALNY is one of the few stocks in this sector that I think could have a very big future. There are a number of reasons, but they all revolve around my estimate that the probability that ALNY will dominate a market that will expand pretty dramatically over the next few years is high. But there is a caveat: clinical side effects could prove devastating (as we saw with the gene therapy trials, which btw are moving again, and there is commercialization going on). If so, those involved are in absolutely the best position to overcome such problems, but clinical trials are most often full of surprises. Still, ALNY's future does not completely depend upon clinical results.
Insiders hold 45% of the float, so a buyout is possible, but not likely at this time (IMHO). But down the road a bit, I think this company may become an attractive buyout candidate for big pharma.
T
P.S. Earnings are out on Tuesday.... so maybe selling now will make me look dumb, but I just couldn't walk away from a profitable trade. |
