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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (39165)	2/13/2005 4:49:18 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (2) of 206223

Greenlaw, I think it's a top because Uncle Al is raising and investors are complacent because they're generally greedy (present company excluded). The flattening yield curve is winding up the carry trade so everyone is trying to squeeze as much out of these last few weeks as possible. At the same time liquidity is leaving the market, but energy is so hot it hasn't noticed yet. The broad market will correct eventually. The Fed is trying to talk down the market by having one governor say they're thinking of removing 'measured' and 'accomodative' when in fact they would like the carry trade and hedgies to just back off a bit so they could skip raising in March (what they really want to do, to avoid anything blowing up). Basically to say the OSX is going higher is to say energy stocks will be uncorrelated to the other indexes when they correct. There are plenty of times when stocks with loads of cash trade at absurd PEs because the market is down. Rising LME inventories is the canary in the coal mine. Chinese demand is slowing. Perhaps their 40% nonperforming bank loans has something to do with it? Naw! It's Japan all over. (JMHO, BWDIK) D

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