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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over?

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (1426)9/3/1997 11:09:00 AM
From: H James Morris   of 2754
 
Sparky
I'm getting back to about the business week article so I'll try to make it brief. Its about a guy named Jean Philippe Dauvin who is the chief economist for SGS-Thomson (one of top 10 chipmakers in the world). BW goes on to say why they think he is the top chip forecaster out there. He is forecasting the chip market will double by 2000 and hit 290 to 300bil (current 140bil). He thinks the other chip guru's forecasts (250bil or less) are to low, because of this years 6% gr has made them too conservative. He says that current utilization at 82%, will increase to 95%, which would bring sizzling price increases and spur investment. Finally he asserts that sales will climb at least 20% in 98 and then zoom 30% higher in 99. As for the next downturn, Dauvin says it's not in the cards before mid-2001, when a gradual buildup of capacity could sap prices again.
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