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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: loantech who wrote (26502)2/15/2005 6:41:19 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (2) of 110194
 
Mid month ARMs index snapshot:

1 year CMT is 3.03 vs 2.86 end of Jan, vs 2.76 end of Dec
1 year Libor is 3.36 vs 3.27 end of Jan vs. 3.10 end of Dec.

Tomorrow we can get a look of the purchase index post Super Bowl Sunday, to see if the crazies are back at it? It's been solid at 439-448 the last four weeks. Are you seeing any signs of ARMs holders switching to 30 year?

For the heck of it I walked into a real estate office Sunday in the Pearl District, finally couldn't help myself. And what a load of baloney and BS, with a heavy appeal to speculative spirits, greed, and quick bucks. And I don't think she just sized up my nature, as in "one look at this guy". It's obviously just a game there. I used the term Bubble several times, and said huffed that the last time that term was used was two years ago at 35% cheaper prices, snicker, snicker. She said the new Pinnacle is 85% sold. Said there is maybe only a month or two inventory. She estimated 20-25% are bought not as primary residences. She said the rental market was "soft". She confirmed that maybe 25% are generally unoccupied or "lightly" occupied. Indicated that although there are some "cash buyers" the vast majority are 0-20% down, with ARMs commonly used. There is a shift to more 30 years now.
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