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Politics : Gold and Silver Stocks and Related Commentary

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From: TheSlowLane	2/15/2005 10:02:32 PM
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Word on The Street... Ok, I weaseled my way into a reception at the Boston Harbor Hotel tonight that was hosted by Morgan Stanley for the benefit of their high net worth clients. I will try to post more detailed notes later, but thought I should post a couple of thoughts in case I don't get around to the full report. The featured speaker was Fred Sturm, who manages about a billion dollars in the Ivy Fund (Canada). He has been focused on natural resources for the past 20 years. I got the impression that the first 17 of those 20 were kind of tough but the last 2-3 have been much, much better. I didn't hear much there that isn't already known by most of the people on this thread. In fact, I would bet that a majority of people on this thread have beat the performance of that fund over the past few years. In all fairness though, you have to start doing things a little differently when you are managing several hundred million dollars. One of the key takeaways for me is that this is not Jim Puplava, Richard Russell or Jim Sinclair preaching to the choir. This is Morgan Stanley telling their clients that they ought to think about starting to allocate some portion of their portfolios to natural resources. When I say clients, I am not talking about Joe Sixpack, I am talking about Josephine Dom Perignon. Joe Sixpack does not get involved until much later in the game. Fred Sturm thinks that what we have seen so far is the first "recovery bounce" coming out of a loooooooong bear market for this sector. He thinks that there will be pauses along the way, but that we are still in the early innings and that the sustained price spikes are still a ways off. All in all, I thought it was an excellent summary for the uninitiated and a good review for the already indoctrinated. Although I do not need a lot of convincing, it was still good to hear from someone that manages mucho dinero that there are lots of good reasons to be on the path that we have chosen. My favorite quote from Fred..."I don't like gold stocks. I am buying more of them." He is cutting back on some of his oil positions and scaling into a heavier gold stock allocation. He thinks that oil is due for a short-term retrenchment but believes that it is a good place to be for the long-term. He did not use the phrase "peak oil" but did put up some charts that clearly indicate that peak oil is upon us. He said a few nice things about Canadian oil sands stocks. That's off the top of my head, I will have to review my notes later and see what I missed...

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