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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (26558)	2/16/2005 4:51:40 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Sam, This is covered in the upcoming issue of New Scientist. The two ideas are to stockpile antivials and start vaccinating. There really is only one anti-viral (Tamiflu) for H5N1 and there is a major production issue (Roche can only make about 1.5 million something its not clear if its pills or doses) per year. They are building a new plant in the US, but it still won't do much for a pandemic, even if Tamiflu works. On the vaccine front, for the US Aventis and Chiron are making a pandemic vaccine, built Chiron has contamination issues and the plan is to make something like 4 million doses. There is some talk about a similar amount for Europe. However, since the world's population is over 6 billion, 4-10 million doses won't do much. Theoretically, the cost of a pandemic vaccine (even if 3 different viruses were included) wouldn't cost any more than a normal flu shot (which costs a few bucks to make and sells for something like $7 in bulk. As far as monitoring (which is currently pretty useless) costs go, its millions, not billions.

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