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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 76.04-0.3%Nov 26 3:59 PM EST

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To: Elroy who wrote (67098)2/17/2005 8:01:37 AM
From: Amy J  Read Replies (2) of 77400
 
Elroy, yes, Cisco doesn't have the high volume leverage in cost structure that the semiconductor business has such as Intel.

In the past, when Intel turns around, its stock can unexpectedly turn on a dime due to the leverage high volume gives it. Cisco doesn't seem to have this same type of leverage as Intel's manufacturing.

This makes writing cov calls on intc riskier (due to the potential to change on a dime) than csco but sometimes more profitable, I think.

But how do you predict the direction of the economy? If you believe Greenspan he thinks the economy is stronger (which it appears to be), but if you believe SIA they apparently think semis are slowing a tad.

Tend to have the same opinion as Mindmeld (about a spark that could alight things) but more with Intc due to its manufacturing leverage. Right now, am favoring writing cc's on csco than intc holdings in case intc moves quickly because I tend to believe Greenspan's report about the economy being reasonably strong and how Asia continues to be okay. Why do you and I think we'll have a semi rally but SIA isn't talking about one?

Believe Csco should be valued at $24 right now, assuming a 5 year 15% annual growth rate. Cisco has taken an unusual beating by WS and I don't know why. I think Csco is undervalued.

Also, Intel stumbled last year and it showed up in the stock, but the reverse of that is they've cleaned up and haven't had any major stumbles since, so believe that should show up in the stock.

Regards,
Amy J
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