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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor
GDXJ 106.70-0.3%Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (1463)9/3/1997 1:07:00 PM
From: Gary   of 116796
 
Here are a few comments from Ken Cloeman's news letter " Investment Tracker". He's got a fair track record and his San Fransico mining investment show speach last Dec. was good.

" Many European nations have sold over half thier gold reserves in order to meet the Maastricht Treaty Criteria. These nations bought U.S. treasury bonds with the money they received from gold sales. This seemingly innocent action caused a chain of events. First gold's price started to fall. Then, interest rates fell below 5.9 % . Then then the U.S.stock market exploded and the dollar soared. This is not a new era , just a one time series of expedient actions taken by desparate nations trying to create an economic union in Europe. The Europeans sold their gold because as economic trading partners, they would no longer need to cover that portion of their foreign trade. If the ERO doesn't happen we would see the mother of all short squeezes on gold. (He gives all the reasons) On the other hand if the EMU does materialize as expected these same nations wold be forced to sell much of the several hundred billion dollars of U.S. treasury bills they now own in order to buy the new EMU. Either way it is not a pretty picture. We should start to feel the effect of these two events between October 1 1997 and April 1998. The nations that are too enter the union are to be announced next April." His article expands on the issue from there but this is the substance.

I read recently that the U.S. money supply was growing at double digit numbers, presumably due to the huge demand for treasury bonds. If the Europeans eventually do redeem theirs who will buy them and at what interest rates ? This article is thought provoking and raises some interesting issues I wanted to share with you.

Gary

Gary
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