Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders

LRCX 217.47

+4.2%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (5232)	2/17/2005 12:36:28 PM
From: Jong Hyun Yoo	Read Replies (1) of 5867

I agree with Splinter that the etch market is growing faster than the total market. With respect to AMAT gaining market share, I never heard AMAT executive say " we are losing market share." This is also true for Lam and NVLS executives as they are also gaining market share all the time. There may be some truth to Splinter's claim if you just look at this Q number. Looks like AMAT had two large orders flushed out this Q that was in excess of 100 mil(probably much greater) per order. Etch products were certainly part of it but my guess is these orders were for 130 nm node or larger and likely to be related to non-critical etch applications based on Producer platform. LRCX had a huge Samsung order in Dec that was flushed out that Q and the company revenue growth much higher than its peers. Now the point is during the downturn, it is somewhat meaningless to speak of who has a higher market share based on revenue number especially on quarterly basis. The order size and frequency of the order is lumpy. Depending on the customer with whom you have a stronger position and timing of their orders, you can claim we had a market share gain. More realistic way to judge the market share would be to examine what technology will drive the next upturn and who has a better positioning with leading customers in those field. My guess on next technology driver is ramp on 90 nm process that the IDM's and foundaries have been working on sometime. Chipmakers need this as your profit margin with this process is much higher and chips with small sizes are in demand. (note how all out cell phones and Mp3 music players are getting smaller and smaller). I heard Jim Bagley claiming LRCX owns qualified processes for 10 out of the 11 major 300 mm 90 nm capable customers. This tells me LRCX has much better position with future key markets. AMAT is certainly great company, no doubt. But with etch I prefer LRCX over AMAT. And don't put down LRCX for being a single product company in Etch. When AMAT was 9 billion $ company in middle of 90's, roughly 4 to 5 billion revenue came from single AL PVD from which it used the profit to grow the other business. Good luck with your investment. JHY

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