"If China ever decides to divert this capital surplus elsewhere, either to internal investment or to the development of oil, gas, and mineral resources elsewhere in the world, the US economy will be in trouble," Brown said
He warned that global dependence on the Chinese economy, with 1.3 billion people, for absorption of both raw materials and finished products could backfire if economic growth in China plunged.
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TAYLOR: Part of Jim Rogers’ argument hinges on China. He thinks, as do most people, that economic growth in China will
continue at a torrid pace for as far into the future as the eye can see. Do you have any thoughts on the influence of China in the
post-bubble era? Might demand from China overwhelm normal post-bubble dynamics?
HOYE: First step is that in the 70s and 80s it was Japan that was the engine of growth and was buying industrial commodities.
What’s more, they had the most brilliant policy makers in history. But then tangible asset speculation collapsed so the world
could enjoy another financial bubble.
But the best model is the U.S. after the 1873 stock bubble. There were huge migrations of people into the U.S. The U.S. was
building railroads and canals. It was a very vibrant and innovative economy. But it was subject to its own domestic speculative
excesses. It was also subject to the availability of credit from the world’s financial capital in London. So until the global
depression bottomed in 1895, the U.S. had bull markets and very sharp collapses, but nonetheless, England and Europe had a
depression. The U.S. was within that envelope, and I believe China is going to be vulnerable to its own speculative exc esses and
vulnerable to the availability of credit in the world’s financial capital.
It’s nice to have them becoming more and more free, but we saw the same pitch in 1929 when the end of socialism in Europe was
seen to be a great opportunity for the market and industry in the U.S. That came to play in the 1990s when another collapse of
socialism was again seen to provide a great stock market. They were going to sell all kinds of BMWs to the people in East
Germany. But if we should go back to an economist by the name of Say, Say’s Law said if you must consume you must produce.
The Chinese are in the anomaly of consuming immediately a lot of raw materials from elsewhere. At some point they will
develop iron deposits, copper mines, and coal deposits on their own.
TAYLOR: I’ve noticed recently that the Chinese are cutting back on some plans to build nuclear power plants. Might this be the
start of a contraction in China?
HOYE: It’s possible that the authorities who are deciding on nuclear power may be concerned about running out of money. Let
me quote from St Luke. “Which of you intending to build a tower has not sat down first and counted the cost? Whether he has
sufficient to finish it. Lest happily, if he has laid the foundation and is not able to finish it, all behold and begin to mock him.”
(Luke 14:28-29).
But then again, perhaps the Sierra Club has opened a chapter in Beijing.
TAYLOR: It might be appropriate for the U.S. as well, no?
HOYE: Well, yes, for everyone who has become over-extended on the party. |
