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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: RealMuLan who wrote (23967)	2/19/2005 10:48:29 PM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) of 116555

--ggg--"Dilemma of Japan - wants US for defense and need India-China consumers to get out of deflation and recession" Sonia Chopra Feb. 19, 2005 Japan finally found out the truth that a major dependency on US consumers would not help them come out of deflationary recession and allow them to grow their economy. They need Chinese and Indian consumers ?world? current consumption leaders to help Japan in growing their export based economy. At the same time Japan is very comfortable is having US as defense partner against China, North Korea and other countries they consider adventurous in their region. India and China is the main projected economic engine for Japanese economy in the next twenty years. However, China does not look at America-Japan defense alliance with favorable eyes. China looks towards Russia and India to provide the enormous counter weight in defense, trade and strategic collaboration. Strangely as it is, China also looks for alliance with America against any misadventure of Japan against China and America. Americans are real skeptical about the Chinese. China will and probably is challenging America as the new comer in superpower block. The fast growing India-China economies are a big challenge for America. Right now American companies are busy using India and China to create cost effective products and services. But things will change ?it is just matter of time. India right now does not understand her strength ?she is na?e and is serving the world blindly with cheap outsourcing services. But as India wakes up and realizes that Western power block are hindering her from obtaining the permanent security council seat, India will start asserting her weight as a newly born super power. Japan? biggest dilemma is in maintaining a balance between her defense needs and economic reality. China and India will challenge Japan in high-tech export monopoly. Japan will have serious problems in selling to Indian and Chinese consumers. Even America in the next several years can close doors to so much import especially against China and Japan to preserve jobs and prosperity of American people. Japan will eventually push for larger trade with the rest of the world. Japan? biggest problem is lack of natural resources and export dependence in maintaining her relatively high standard of living. According to media reports, Japan and the United States will meet Feb. 19 for "two-plus-two" talks on the alliance between the two nations. It has been widely leaked that the joint statement to be released at the end of the meeting will for the first time include a clear delineation of Taiwan as a key strategic issue for Japan. This only vocalizes moves Japan already has taken in association with the United States to encapsulate Taiwan in the Japanese defense sphere. While these moves clearly show that the United States considers China the greatest threat to its interests in East Asia, the Chinese leadership senses a long-term opportunity for an alliance with the United States against Japan. indiadaily.com

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