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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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From: russwinter2/21/2005 1:03:48 PM
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SF vacancy rates surge:

sheridanreport.com

Obviously silly season behavior of "investors" buying "rentals" and second homes. Hardly looks like a housing shortage.

San Francisco’s residential rental vacancy rate rose dramatically in the third quarter to 8.1%, up from 4.9% in the second quarter. This increase, reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, is the largest quarterly increase since the fourth quarter of 1999 and may be a sign that San Francisco’s stagnant rental market is unlikely to rebound in the near future. The one-year average rate for vacancies stands at 7.8%. Translating this percentage into units means that in San Francisco, on average, approximately 17,000 units sat empty throughout the city during the past year.

This Bubble maladjustment is now showing up in multi-family
deliquencies:

Sunday, February 13, 2005
Multifamily Loan Delinquency Rising: Fitch

On February 9th, Fitch Ratings reported more delinquent commercial multifamily properties. "(M)ultifamily loans are still experiencing stress in some markets,' said Mary O'Rourke, Senior Director, Fitch Ratings. 'A large portion of the new defaults in the multifamily arena stemmed from small balance loans under $4 million with 26% being loans under $1 million and another 34% under $4 million".

The problems are concentrated in a basket of states. "(N)ew defaults, particularly among small balance loans, concentrated in secondary markets in Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Texas". The Fitch Loan Delinquency Index for January climbed to 1.57%.
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