I love Netflix -- as a consumer of video services. Much, much better than the alternatives. Better value for the money, much better selection, no hassles going to, then standing in line at the video store, no late fees, etc etc. I just became a member a few months ago. Was so positive about it that I considered it as an investment. But like you, I think its best days as an investment vehicle are behind it. Limited barriers to entry, and facing increasing competition from Blockbuster, WalMart, Amazon, and others. They are already in a price war which doesn't show much reason to end anytime soon. And finally, their lifespan will be limited -- i.e. their business opportunity was created by technology, and will be terminated by technology, once VOD becomes ubiquitous. Its an open question whether they can migrate their value-added over to VOD. How difficult is it to create the programs for linking/recommending movies? Not terribly difficult I think, because I see my kids using a number of different applications which provide similar functionality for music.
So, great company, and I love (truly love) the service they provide me as a consumer. But I don't see a compelling investment opportunity here.
Just my opinion of course.
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