I would have agreed with Bush two years ago. Amazing how Barnett has changed my attitude on the best approach to China. We have to be tough in how we go about it, but I think this is the wrong track.
The New York Times
February 22, 2005
Bush Voices Concern on Plan to Lift China Arms Embargo
By ELISABETH BUMILLER
BRUSSELS, Feb. 22 - President Bush said today that there was "deep concern" in the United States that if the European Union lifts an arms embargo against China it would change the balance of relations between China and Taiwan, but he said he was still willing to listen to European views on the issue.
In his most explicit public argument against lifting the embargo, which has become a major topic of disagreement between the United States and Europe, Mr. Bush said that he was concerned that lifting the ban would be seen as a transfer of technology to the Chinese.
The Bush administration fears that such technology would allow China to modernize its military and upset the military balance of power in Asia.
The European Union is almost certain to lift the 15-year-old embargo by June, and has tried to quell American fears by saying it will limit the transfer of sensitive high technology to the Chinese by developing a tough new "code of conduct," or protocol, for arms exports.
Mr. Bush said that he was interested in looking at that code of conduct, and went so far to say on his second day of a four-day goodwill trip to Belgium, Germany and Slovakia that he was on a "listening tour." But he expressed skepticism about the ability of the Europeans to come up with a proposal for curbing the transfer of technology to the Chinese that would satisfy the United States.
"There is deep concern in our country that a transfer of weapons would be a transfer of technology to China, which would change the balance of relations between China and Taiwan, and that's of concern," Mr. Bush said at a joint news conference at NATO headquarters with Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer. "And they, to a person, said, well, they think they can develop a protocol that isn't that shouldn't concern the United States."
Mr. Bush added: "Now, whether they can or not, we'll see."
Despite the relatively diplomatic words from Mr. Bush, the issue showed signs of opening a new strain with Europeans during a trip that was promoted on both sides as a critical make-up session after the transatlantic quarrel over the war in Iraq. There appeared little negotiating room on either side.
President Jacques Chirac of France, in responding to Mr. Bush's comments later in the day, said that while security guarantees could be worked out, Europe remains steadfast in its desire to end the ban.
"We intend to lift the last obstacles in our relations" with China, Mr. Chirac said.
But a senior Bush administration official who briefed reporters on Monday night was equally steadfast in opposition. "I want to be very, very clear: Our opposition to the embargo remains," the official said. "We remain concerned. I should not leave you in any way with the impression that we have changed our view. We have merely heard out the Europeans. I expect that a dialogue - a friendly, serious dialogue about these issues will continue."
In his news conference at NATO, the president told the Europeans that when they settle on their new code of conduct, they need to "sell it to the United States Congress."
The president was alluding to rising concern from both Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill about Europe's plans to lift the embargo it imposed on China in 1989 after the crushing of demonstrations at Tiananmen Square in Beijing.
As recently as Friday, Senator Richard Lugar, the Indiana Republican who is chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said in an interview in The Financial Times that he would support limits of American sales of advanced military technology to Europe unless there were strong assurances that such technology would not be diverted to China when the arms embargo is lifted.
Mr. Lugar said if lifting the embargo were to result in such a diversion, he would support restrictions on the sales of American weapons technology to Europe.
Earlier this month, the House of Representatives passed a resolution by 411-3 that condemned the European Union plans.
At a second news conference of the day, this one at the headquarters of the European Union, Mr. Bush reiterated that the United States was not on the verge of war with Iran, although he did not rule out, as he never has, military action.
"This notion that the United States is getting ready to attack Iran is simply ridiculous," Mr. Bush said, then added, to some laughter, "having said that all options are on the table."
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