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Gary, What you say makes some sense. I hate that. -G- However, as
I noted here and on Prodigy on July 21, in the last three chip down
cycles, Micron had up moves of 50-70 percent off the intermediate
bottom before it finally made its low. We had a 55 percent move up
off the 16 7/8 bottom today when this SR took the stock to 26 1/4.
So, though what you say makes sense, it has mostly already happened.
Fred Hickey and I disagree on this chip cycle in only one way. He is
fixated, as are most chip analysts, on pc demand and chip demand. I
have concentrated much more on supply. Fred hasn't ignored supply and
I haven't ignored the demand growth slowdown, but it is a matter of
emphasis and the fact that I spend more time in Asia than he does.
BTW, the next trip to Asia is looking like October and I have funding
for two countries. One more and its a go. Good luck, MB |
