Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Henry Niman who wrote (60567)	2/24/2005 4:38:10 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) of 74559

<The failure to screen unusual clusters of meningococcemia cases in the Philippines is a clear example of a failure to learn the lessons of the 1918 pandemic. There were several examples of clusters linked to funerals, with case fatality ratios approaching 100%. The lack of testing these cases for H5N1 avian influenza represents a clear public health failure.> That's true. The cost of testing is trivial compared with the cost of the problem if it becomes pandemic. To exclude a theory, we need to call in Karl Popper and his falsifiability test. If the people haven't been tested, then we can't say that the theory they have H5N1 or variant is wrong. Testing them would exclude or include them. Testing seems a very good and cheap idea so that the extent of infection is known and further action can be taken. Mqurice

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