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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Elsewhere who wrote (158509)	2/25/2005 12:44:45 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) of 281500

Jochen, Can you expound on my latest fixation, i.e., demographics? Is there any sense in Germany or Europe as a whole of how significant a problem declining populations throughout Western Europe presents to long term well being? Italy, Spain, France, Germany, the Nordics, are all affected. Of course, high educational levels are the best contraceptive ever invented. The Western European demographic issues as I see them are (1) how to sustain economic growth under circumstances where the population is aging and shrinking, (2) immigration as a tactic to replace dwindling populations, and (3) how to maintain the huge levels of social spending where the tax base will inevitably shrink. Is there any widespread recognition among the elites and/or the populace of just how serious the demographic problem is or are Bernard Lewis's (and others) quite reasonable notions of an impending Eurabia in a few decades scoffed at? I suppose the fact that the problems will take years to become acute militates against immediate action. Your sage comments appreciated.

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