regli...
Here are 2 interesting technical charts emphasizing particular patterns apparent in the SPX cash Index.
Message 21077381
I am aware of your watershed event considerations, but don't agree with the emphasis that you put on the acceleration of the downfall of the US as described in your arguments.
We (the public) don't know and don't have enough information to know if the Korean and Russian mishaps are benign policies or aggressive activists in a changing view of the dollar.
We do know the world doesn't like this presidents war policies, and we know they don't understand why he was reelected. But that doesn't infer the international monetary system is about to explode against those facts.
>>I believe we are observing the early rummaging of these shifts of capital.<<
Wouldn't it take a significant shock to the system to really knock out the worlds international financial systems...? But that shock isn't possible to anticipate or know in advance, and over the past 75 years there have been plenty of "whacks." The last of which was the LTCM blowup. (back in the news)
I don't Trade or take positions based on Fear... only unbiassed, objective evidence.
So... staying fluid... here's some evidence to support your views... and this information can't be ignored. There's a concentrated confirmation coming from astro folks and other technicians, that some event? is on the horizon.
Crawford, Granville, Merriman, Mahendra, Hahn, Hitt, Prichter, Eliades, and others are on record calling for a substantive seabed of change due shortly if not immanent within a few weeks. The Big Bears are all Highly Active. (Perhaps they're right...?)
But they've been saying this for weeks, if not months and in some cases years. Granville has admitted he was wrong for a solid 10 years... Merriman and Mahendra have excellent track records and Prickter, well he earns his living selling fear and has been wrong for years. Crawford is no better.
Using my own stuff... basically trend following systems that have kept me long and adding long positions since March 03, I can say they are NOT negative today. Also, there are internal studies I keep... like ARMS, PCRatios, CLX, etc which have confirmed staying with the systems trend signals.
At this time these methods have not broken down....!!!
So today, I'd have to say any pull back will be shallow, temporary, and enough to confirm adding long. There is no indication that I should sell. However, the charts as presented show some apparent risks, and the astro folks make me nervous.
SFWATIWTY (so for what all this is worth to you)
Until that event which irrefutably confirms the international monetary system is significantly destroyed, I'd have to say we'll muddle through.
I reserve the right to change my mind next week... <smile>
My Best,
Chip |
