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Strategies & Market Trends : Nasdaq 100 Analysis
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To: Steve Lee who wrote (237)2/26/2005 9:51:31 AM
From: Kirk ©   of 238
 
Good to see you back posting.

From: Steve Lee 2/25/2005 6:34:49 PM 237 of 237

Weighted ave forward P/E of NDX100 components as of today's close is:

29.65


Don't forget that PE has the effects of Sarbanes Oxley and should account for option expensing if you are using forward earnings a year out.

I went back to see some other data points you've posted.

Last post, shortly before the markets bottomed:

To: Steve Lee who wrote (225) 6/21/2002 8:02:37 AM
From: Steve Lee Mark as Last Read | Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 237

Valuation of NDX 100 index using weighted average of top 70 components:

Current PE = 40.17
Forward PE = 31.40

Current PS = 6.23
Forward PS = 5.62


and 1/5/2002

To: Softechie who wrote (41) 1/5/2002 7:13:39 PM
From: Steve Lee Read Replies (1) of 237

Just did it.

Nice 62.1 PE on the NDX 100.


Remember this is with BS pro forma numbers - real PE is higher.

Next update planned after the next round of earnings and guidance. If you want to calculate the PE at times in between, take the current values and adjust for whatever NDX is at the time (NDX currently 1675.03).


Better valuation today than when the market bottomed in 2002. I've come to the conclusion that QQQQ is something good for shorting or buying to play momentum, but not good for long term investments. One of the stocks I've made a lot of money in is LRCX. It gets added to QQQQ near its tops and taken out when it cycles low... just the opposite of what you want... buy LRCX when Low and Sell when High. I see QQQQ as a beauty pagent where you want to buy the Ugly Ducklings who get transformed into QQQQ beauties before they are added.

Kirk
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