Hi Spreck,
Since forming a double bottom in December after a medium-term correction, oil has strongly rallied ever since. It is about to begin trading again, but Friday it closed at $51.77, about $2 shy of its all-time high.
futuresource.com
Now you can see that it is overextended at the top of the BBs, has expanded the BBs, has formed reversal candles, and looks ready to correct back to support.
I haven't looked at the charts you linked yet, but I suspect many of them move as oil does. If so, they are mostly probably ready to pull back to support, since oil itself is.
Regarding the metal stocks, I am not sure what metals they are involved in, but probably these move similarly to gold futures. You can see from the chart below that gold has been in a medium-term correction since the beginning of December, but found support at about $415 in early February and has been on a tear ever since.
futuresource.com
The state of the chart looks remarkably similar to oil, as you can see, so I anticipate gold will also correct back to support.
So I would consider buying the stocks that are closely linked to oil when oil corrects and successfully tests support.
Similarly, potential long positions in metals stocks should take into account gold. There are other metals futures charts you can access through FutureSource.com as well, and these might be more helpful in specific situations (e.g. copper futures for stocks involved in copper mining or production).
Bottom line, just based on futures and assuming there is a close correlation of price movements as outlined above, this would not be a good time to consider long positions in such stocks, but rather might be a good time to consider short positions once oil and/or gold give indications that the correction I anticipate has begun or will begin shortly. There are already indications that this will begin very very soon, probably later today, but the stochastic settings in these charts are very fast and prone to very short-term whipsaw, and so I consider the crossovers now showing to be preliminary sell signals only for that reason. Personally, I would wait for further confirmation, but that looks like it will begin when trading resumes with today's session.
Hope this helps,
T |
