Kastel,
<It all depends on the Alberta sands I think>
I can't think of a scenario where the oil sands don't fly. In a resource war they fly, in peak oil they fly, in a crashing USD the US comes knocking and they fly.
I guess the only exception is a bird flu pandemic, but we're all fcuked then anyways. In the Spanish flu companies went broke because they would send out the bill (for electricity or gas) and not get paid. Why? There was noone on the other end. Then, there was noone in the company to send the bill. Etc etc.
OK, but forgetting that I see very little downside for oil sands. It is my core portfolio. While I have a few offshore plays, they are just not as *defensible* as the oil sands. I recognize people have issues with the costs and Kyoto, but I see that as a positive. The companies cannot book the oil sands reserves so when you buy CNQ, for example, the price is based on a company *sans* about 6 billion barrels of oil. (I can just see the controller mumbling right now "Oh, and in addition, over here, we have this $4 billion dollar project, but we can't talk about it, mumble, mumble US SEC mumble grumble"
CNQ: 6 bn bbl...free!
CLL: est 600mm bbl est recoverable...free!
PBG: est 300mm bbl est recoverable...free!
If people still have issues, buy CLL or PBG and you get the oil sands free in addition to the S. American operation.
Yes, I'm pounding the table here. This is the best deal in town!! They should be selling this stuff on QVC.
D |
