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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: mishedlo who wrote (27448)	2/28/2005 9:46:37 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) of 110194

In addition to my economic slowdown indicators, Message 21089069 which will have nothing to do with deflation, but only with timing the Wizards response (they are way too far behind the inflation curve to act too quickly to pause, plus many foreigners are watching), let me offer my deflation watch indicators. -- You will absolutely not see the slightest whiff of deflation or even an abatement of serious inflation, unless the agency/treasury spread widens significantly, and all credit spreads widen. The Fed may react (by monetizing agencies?) if that even happens though, and that will be inflationary (this time hyper-inflationary) once again. Should the agency/treasury spread start to widen (say to 75-100 bps) gcm.com WITHOUT an aggressive Fed monetary response, then I will be willing to consider deflation (a positive, cleansing form of it IMO)as an increasing prospect (actually a benefit of sorts, if you're not a Bully or Pig Man). Because I'm not dogmatic, how much I will state when and if. Should the Vanguard/Treasury spread widen to 21.00 stockcharts.com[m,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G WITHOUT an aggressive Fed monetary response, we can have the same conversation. My expectation (actions not words, my motto) when this happens? printing presses and hyperinflation.

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