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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly Buy and Sell Set Ups

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From: chowder	3/1/2005 6:46:24 AM
	of 13449

FEBRUARY 05 TOTALS: 15 Winners 23 Losers 7 Trades finished flat Average gain per winning trade: 4.4% Average loss per losing trade: 3.0% Total profit/loss ... Up $656 Percentage profit/loss ... Up 0.3% Year To Date: Nasdaq ... down <5.6%> Russell 2000 ... down <2.6%> S&P 500 ... down <0.6%> Dow ... down <0.15%> The Portfolio ... Up 1.5% Analysis: Although there were more losing trades than there were winning trades, I was able to squeeze out a profit. The objective is to earn 2% to 4% per month and do it consistently. If that objective can not be achieved, I don't want to show a losing month and that objective was achieved. By eliminating the drawdown, I won't need a big month to break even. A big month should keep me well ahead of the indices. I made several mistakes this month, the primary mistake was trying to make up for lost time. I tried to put too many trades on to offset the time I was on vacation. The timing was poor as the condition of the market warranted caution at the time, not an aggressive approach. Hopefully I won't make that mistake again as it cost me dearly with about 6-8 consecutive losing trades. Those consecutive losing trades shook my confidence level and caused me to miss the best trade of the year. I correctly identified the BOOM trade and took my profit early just to break a losing streak. BOOM was up as much as 47% in two days and I got out with 6% of that. I got away from what worked because my confidence level was low and my confidence level was low because I tried to do too much at a time when I should have simply stayed with the strategies. I allowed those losing trades to effect me emotionally and we don't usually make good decisions when the motivator is emotion. Highest gainers: ENER up 8.9% BWNG up 8.7% AIRT up 8.0% Worst performers: RFMD down 6.0% CTIC down 5.6% SIMG down 3.9% Suggested Improvements: I'm still able to keep losses small. This concept has me showing a profit every month since going public with every trade. I'm still showing too many losing trades vs winning trades and it's because I tried to play too many reversal plays from low price ranges as opposed to stocks in an established uptrend. The bullish engulfing reversals from price lows just aren't a high enough reward play for short term trades. They need more time to work because overhead supply coming to market puts too much downward pressure on pricing in the near term. I will need to adjust that and expand my time frame or eliminate the trades all together. Observation on the current strategies: I'm still able to identify and play high probability trades and manage risk properly. The average gain per trade is still better than the average loss per trade. I will focus more on up trending stocks since market conditions are so volatile at this time. When shorting, I will focus more on the stocks already in an established down trend as opposed to shorting those in a strong up trend. A very poor month performance wise but feel fortunate to at least show a profit, and I'm still outperforming the indices which is the primary objective. dabum

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