SC,
The more I learn about the income trusts the more I want to buy oil sands stocks.
Almost all the trusts have declining reserves/unit.
The price per boe of the trusts exceeds the price/flowing boe of non-trusts by 30%.
IOW, people pay $10,000 for some trusts units that have an underlying value of $70,000 because the yield is 10%. That's a good gig, where do I sign up?
Goodale wants to stop tax leakage, and he has mentioned the business trusts plenty of times. If institutions get capped, they'll be hit first. Earning 7% on a REIT or 5.5% on a Canadian gov't bond? 150bp doesn't really compensate. AP.UN has already given that up the last few weeks, same with others.
Have the trusts seen their peaks?
This gives me pause.
stockhouse.ca
Hmm-more AY.UN?
In comparison, the oil sands stocks still provide good value on the metrics I use: mkt cap/boe. The cheapest boes are in oil sands stocks, and the trust units I sold last year to buy OST.UN, DCE.TO, UTS.TO, CLL.TO, OPC.TO outperformed all the O&G trusts. I still see good value in oil sands stocks (many are still below NAV), whereas the trusts trade about 30% above NAV on average.
I keep seeing these trusts get hit by comparative advantage issues. Non-trusts (ie companies that don't have to distribute all their cash) can invest in their business, and in newer technology and technology to save costs.
CHE.UN, AFT.UN-hit by competitors
RSI.UN hit by competitors and energy costs
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