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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: mishedlo who wrote (24693)3/2/2005 1:55:33 AM
From: CalculatedRisk  Read Replies (2) of 116555
 
UK: Inflation set to push higher, warns Bank's Paul Tucker
Reports By Philip Thornton Economics Correspondent
02 March 2005

Paul Tucker, the lone member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee to vote for a rise in interest rates last month, laid out the case for higher borrowing costs in a keynote speech yesterday. Amid growing signs the Bank is preparing the ground for a rate rise, Mr Tucker said rising demand would push inflation through the 2 per cent target.

A mixed set of data has left the next move in rates resting on a knife-edge, with a marked upturn in the housing market offset by signs of weakness in manufacturing and retail. And Ed Balls, Gordon Brown's former right-hand man, signalled that the Government would not object to a pre-election rate rise.

"In my judgement, there is on balance most likely a degree of excess demand in the economy," Mr Tucker told a regional meeting of the CBI in Surrey. "Conditions of excess demand, combined with the likelihood of stronger import prices, point to inflation gradually rising back towards and through the 2 per cent target over the next two years or so." He said there were continuing demand pressures likely to feed through to inflation. "The recent rise in CPI inflation suggests that we were not stuck materially below the inflation target," he added.

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news.independent.co.uk
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