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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Elroy who wrote (221420)3/2/2005 7:36:35 AM
From: Road Walker  Read Replies (1) of 1573981
 
re: Think of the endgame in Iraq. How is there a scenario where the "insurgent" killers win, and the fledgling government vanishes? It seems 90% likely that the opposite occurs, which would be a resounding success for American policy.

You have three groups pulling in distinctly different directions. You still have ~60 attacks a day by insurgents, blowing themselves up. You have a country that has little or no infrastructure. You have dangerous neighboring countries that have vital ethnic, religious and economic interests in the outcome. You have, hell, I don't know, 15,000 people fully trained in terrorist tactics.

On the other side, you have one election, that took 200K troops and police to pull off.

It's the first inning. Lot's of things are going to happen in Iraq, and we don't know what they are. I would say it's 90% certain that things are going to break bad and get worse.

John
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