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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (27607)	3/2/2005 2:40:46 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Perhaps you are right, and if so Chinese enterprises will fail like flies on a cold autumn day. I subscribe to a novel idea on all this, if you're running large scale money losing businesses, it's just a matter of time. Just like all the subprime borrowers we've been focusing on, China can't afford to loan billions more into a rathole. The situation is getting acute. What do you think WMT shelves and the American supply chain will look like at that point? I think we are nearing resolution of some sort. As for walmart shelves, they can remain full if no one is buying. A global property boom is fueling the whole shebang. Just when you think it can not get any more insane it gets more insane. Notice how they let stops accumulate at spoos 1212 for 3 days then purposely blew them out today. Until some more liquidity dries up this shit is going to keep happening. I sound like some sort of conspiracy nut cause I can not even say who "they" is. Gold and silver all over the map today too. What was that all about? Here's a couple of interesting points you may have missed. Why has specifically the 5-yr treasury been out performing everything else for several days? For a while yesterday it was the only one that was green. Is that somehow related to your ED play. I fail to see how, just pointing out an observation. The Sept Dec and March 2006 were up the most today. I think I would like a mammoth blowout jobs number and gap down in EDs. That would be buyable I think. Of course if jobs disappoint we might see a huge gap up and short covering rally. Sept/Dec seems to be the sweet spot. One thing that is happening is that demand for HELOCs seems to dry up above 4.20 on the 10-yr. Rates might not have to get much higher to cause a lot of pain either. A range of 4.15-4.40 seems like it would "eventually" sap this market dry. I am not convinced that it takes a huge spike in interest rates. There are warning signs everywhere. In fact I bet ISM goes negative (contracts) within 1-2 months. Best chance for a spike higher if Friday job number but if we fall back below 4.15 I am afraid more idiots will take out more loans. Regardless of what jobs look like this month there are 400K or more of layoffs coming later this year. Did you see my post on it? Think we can create that many more jobs out of housing to make up for it? I don't. In fact I think housing slowdown might add another 200K to that number. The shit can really hit the fan later this year and Greenspan does NOT see it coming. Thoughts on any of that? Mish

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