Buddy,
I found the memo from the Chief Actuary of the Social Security Administration in regards to this subject. And no, it wasn't that easy to find. The Actuary was responding to a Heritage Foundation report that said that the average African American male could expect to receive a little over two years of Social Security before he dies (as compared to over nine years for white males). The Actuary did not agree with the analysis of the Heritage Foundation.
But the Chief Actuary did not dispute that on average African Americans received significantly less old age pensions from Social Security. Just that the Heritage Foundation overstated the amount. He stated that the average African American who reached retirement could expect to live another 8 years while the average white male could expect to live another 12 years after reaching retirement age (65). This means that African American males would still get less return than white males. Further the Actuary stated that 63% of African American males 20 years old, would reach retirement age (65) - while 78% of white males would be expected to reach retirement age. The Actuary also said the this difference would close somewhat because the surviving family members of African American males that die early (wives and minor children) would receive benefits - also reducing the differences found in the Heritage Foundation report.
This still means that fewer African American males are expected to receive old age benefits, and they won't receive them as long.
"...for 20-year-old men the expected number of retirement years after 65 requires both the probability of surviving to 65 and the life expectancy at 65 for those who do survive. For white men age 20, 78.1 percent would expect to survive to 65 at which point they would average an additional 15.5 years of life after 65. Thus, the expected years of life for a 20-year-old white male after reaching 65 would be 12.1 years (= 15.5 x .781). For black men age 20, 60.3 percent would average an additional 13.5 years of life. Their expected retirement years would thus be 8.1..." - S. Goss, Deputy Chief Actuary; Feb 4, 1998
re:"He just testified before Congress about the SS program. He probably knows the demographic factors that impact SS better then any single person.
And, he's the one who explained the bogus statistical conclusion about 'Blacks receiving significantly less because of earlier death rates' (which is a false conclusion caused by extrapolating from the *wrong population sample*, ie, from 'average death rates' which include childhood and early adult deaths --- well BEFORE entering the SS funding pool --- instead of using the correct sample of only the population cohorts who live long enough to ENTER the SS funding pool.)" |
