Number of U.S. troop deaths is just one somber milestone
Friday, March 04, 2005
BY TOM RAUM
ASSOCIATED PRESS
WASHINGTON -- The conflict in Iraq can be told in numbers and milestones, from the more than 1,500 troops who now have died to the number of weapons of mass destruction found -- zero.
ANALYSIS
Two American soldiers died in Baghdad of injuries from a roadside bomb and another was killed in Babil province south of Baghdad, the military said yesterday. That brought to 1,502 the number of U.S. troops who have died since President Bush launched the invasion in March 2003, according to an AP count.
There are other milestones, other important numbers, some reached, some soon to be, as the conflict in Iraq nears its third year.
About 60,000 National Guard and Reserve troops are deployed in Iraq. As of Wednesday, 300 had died there since the war began.
May 1 will be the second anniversary of Bush's "mission accomplished" aircraft carrier speech in which he announced an end to major combat operations.
The price tag tops $300 billion and is climbing, including $81.9 billion more just requested from Congress. The money also covers operations in Afghanistan and the broader war on terror, but the bulk is for Iraq.
When Lawrence Lindsey, then chairman of Bush's National Economic Council, predicted in September 2002 that the cost of war with Iraq could range from $100 billion to $200 billion, the White House openly contradicted him and said the figure was far too high. He was eased out in a shake-up of Bush's economic team.
"Americans need to take note of these sorts of milestones because it's a way to show respect for the sacrifices of troops and reassess strategy," said Michael O'Hanlon, a foreign policy analyst with the Brookings Institution.
"But I'm much more interested in trends," he added, citing indications pointing to the relative strength of the insurgency and whether violence is declining or increasing.
On that, the signs are mixed.
The top U.S. general in the region said that about 3,500 insurgents took part in election day violence in Iraq on Jan. 30, citing estimates from field commanders. Army Gen. John P. Abizaid suggested the failure to prevent millions of Iraqis from voting showed the insurgency was losing potency.
"They threw their whole force at us, we think, and yet they were unable to disrupt the elections because people wanted to vote," Abizaid told the Senate Armed Services Committee this week.
But his comments came just a day after one of the biggest attacks by insurgents since the fall of Saddam Hussein's government in April 2003. A suicide car bombing in the town of Hillah killed at least 125 people, including dozens of recruits for Iraq's security forces.
From Jan. 1 until Iraq's election day, 234 people were killed and 429 were injured in at least 55 incidents, according to an AP count. Casualties rose in February, with 38 incidents resulting in at least 311 deaths and 433 injuries.
Among Americans, the number of deaths in February fell to 58 from 107 in January, which was one of the worst months of the war. February's total was about in line with the total for most months.
Meanwhile, the United States is losing some partners in its "coalition of the willing."
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko announced this week that Ukraine would withdraw its 1,650-strong military contingent by October. Poland is withdrawing about a third of its 2,400 troops. Last year, Spain's new Socialist government withdrew its 1,300 troops.
At the same time, Bush drew commitments during his visit to Europe last week from all 26 NATO countries for contributions to NATO's training of Iraqi security forces -- either inside or outside Iraq or in cash.
Even harsh war critic France will send one officer to help mission coordination at NATO headquarters in Belgium and has separately offered to train 1,500 Iraqi military police in Qatar.
More than half of Americans remain convinced of the importance of keeping U.S. troops in Iraq until the situation has stabilized, though polls suggest widespread doubts about the handling of the war and Iraq's prospects. An AP-Ipsos poll in February found that 42 percent approved of the president's handling of Iraq, while 57 percent disapproved. A slight majority in recent AP-Ipsos polling expressed doubts that a stable Iraq can be established.
Another milestone will come the day Iraq's security forces are sufficiently trained and equipped to deal with the insurgency -- and to permit the United States to begin leaving.
There have been conflicting reports on this, too.
The administration says there are 140,000 "trained and equipped" Iraqi military, security and police officers.
But Anthony Cordesman, a military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, puts the number of Iraqi troops able to stand up to serious insurgent attack at fewer than 20,000. |
