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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: nnillionaire who wrote (4941)9/3/1997 10:39:00 PM
From: tekgk   of 94695
 
>> Are you predicting the DOW Industrials at 4000?

Like I said in my previous post I don't know. I have never tried to predict. I just look for waves up or down in stocks, bonds, currencies and real estate and ride them. I just got off of the stock bull this past June after many, many years. I have been in cash this summer because I could not see a clear wave that I knew how to ride (I did tinker a little with mixed results). The Asia currency crisis was out of my league. I generally stick to Europe and North America where I have a better understanding of the politics, culture and economics. I have started building up my shorts in anticipation of a bear ride but remain ready to run if the FRB continues to let the money supply run wild and to make bad debts good with Fed guarantees. The 1965-1982 stock market lost as much in constant dollar terms as the 1929-1950 stock market (percentages), however in dollar terms except for 73-74 it was not an easy ride down. I found it easier to ride gold/franc up rather than the stock market down in the 70's. I have not finalized my strategy if the FRB continues a 70's repeat for much longer. I still figure that Hasimoto's promise to sell sell US bonds, notes, bills and currency for gold will bring an end to the FRB's game if it goes on much longer. If Hashimoto does sell - I will make a prediction - stock market down by at least 70% within 6 months of the sale of 200 billion or more.
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