Jay,
Today was a milestone for me. I added WTO (for the share appreciaion potential, mkt cap/ est recoverable boe of $1.50, and potential to convert to trust, where mkt cap/est recoverable boe would approach SU, COS.UN and $2.25-$2.30. Adding WTO means I now own shares in each and every oil sands near-pure resource play (where the oil sands is a significant part of mkt cap). I'll list them:
COS/OST.UN
ERF.UN
DCE.TO
PBG.TO
CLL.TO
UTS.TO
CWPC.OB
POU.TO
OPC.TO
BVI.TO
and these majors
HSE.TO
CNQ
I realize IMO.TO, PCA.TO have big oil sands operations but their conventional operations are so huge the oil sands becomes a small part. For example, UTS way outperformed its major partner, PCA.TO, and I just want to buy cheap barrels in the ground.
I feel like I'm somehow in a time machine, back to the early days of Saudi. Maybe an American engineer saw the potential from those first wells. Mr. 1% Ha ha! When I was in Japan they used to say you get seven chances to make it really big in life. Better count 'one' for oil sands.
I think downside is limited. I think in a market selloff if shares became cheap companies would engage poison pills to avoid being taken out (UTS and others have done this), I think the CDN gov't (and maybe Americans) would protect the oil sands from being raided in any market selloff, and if they were raided, preferred suitors would be western oil companies, so hopefully the deal would be done at fair value.
Not without risk, but with limited downside.
D |
