Ahmed,
My short-term technical analysis system is not based on price, not to say that price is not part of the system. I like to believe it is based on oscillations (Guitar) and the study of space and speed(time).
Therefore, I do not spend alot of time on setting targets. When I do set a target, it is very simplistic - I just target the next resistance or support line. I will attempt to determine the strength of next support or resistance line to determine the probability of such line holding (somewhat subjective).
Checking the charts on ASND, it is technically somewhat irratic; therefore I surmise that period of a specific vector could be long. As I have indicated in the past, the longer the term the less accurate my short-term technical analysis is. In light of such I prefer not to set a target for ASND.
As for AMAT, your comment that about setting new highs is not that valid from an analytical perspective. AMAT has definitely turn, not just in price but in the technicals. This is not to say that the "BULLISH ENGULFING" pattern, based on a weekly chart will fail in the future, it may actually occur and AMAT may not set a new high for a long time. What I had attempted to relay is that weekly charts, since they reduce dramaticly the ammount of data, it will also not give that many BUY or SELL signals. In the past year I backtested AMAT and obtained 13 buy signals, and 11 would have worked with options since each signal produced at least a 2-3 point gain, many did much better. All of them worked if the stock was purchased. Based on a weekly chart, I have to guess that you may have had 2-5 buy signals. Those reduced number of signals may have produced stronger runs; however few would be able to reap the full benefit of any run, since trading matters(options) would put limits on the profit (ie: time, time-value,etc).
As you can see I take a strong mathematic view to it - its a numbers game - the more you play the more you gain(of course such will depend on BETA factors). |
