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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 48.26

-0.7%

Feb 5 3:59 PM EST

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To: Richard Tuck who wrote (31001)	9/3/1997 11:05:00 PM
From: Barry A. Watzman	of 186894

>re: "My relatively small AMD investment will lose money in the short term, but like a cat with nine lives, it will be back" Maybe not; AMD bet the company on the K6. They undertook tremendous debt to retool their fab in Austin, and then took on BILLIONS more to build the new fab in Germany that won't be operational until 1999. If the K-6 just does not make it, if Slot one kills socket 7, if Pentium II kills everything lesser, if Merced comes out before AMD is successful and well entrenched, then the debt payments and interest that comes due beginning in 1999 could be beyond AMD's ability to be met. This would force layoffs and cutbacks in marketing and development. It could readily become an accelerating death spiral. I'm not saying that this WILL happen, but it is a possible scenario. AMD stock went from $40 to $10 in 1995 in circumstances that were much less dire. The real problem for AMD is that every single one of the "ifs" mentioned above APPEARS TO BE ALREADY HAPPENING.

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