["what would The Slider be saying about all this...?"]
Well B'Dog; I'm probably thinking the same things you, jim p and lots of other Oilpatch Investors who've been thru a few cycles are thinking...
There is a whole lotta $$$ from "new AND hot money" hanging out there on this most recent ramp in the Oilpatch stocks and we really don't make money in the market untill we hit the Sell Button and Ring the damn Cash Register.
...and money is made in both directions - long & short.
Traders need to realize that there is always a predictable cycle of investing and profit taking in cyclicals.
You have the sector funds who by their charter are always basically in, but will rotate from early to late cycle plays. You have the early money that usually seeks value during the down/slow cycle. You have those who arrive once things start moving and then you have the Hot Money that arrives after they've moved significantly and then you get the Speculative Money...the New Paradigmers and those who believe that "this time" - finally, it will be different; or who truly think they know something that everyone else doesn't...
When, not if... you get one group exiting and cashing in profits and handing off the risk to the next group entering.
On a rather obvious and simplistic level... the 'Patch hasn't seen much selling in a while & this has been a helluva run.
Sooner, or later...a lot of Oilpatch Players are going to decide to get paid and are going to ring that Cash Register.
Is this "THE" Top ?
- no one knows.
But, what hopefully most of us do know... is "THE" Top...isn't reached in a straight line.
What separates the Pro from the Amateur imho; is the Pro knows it's (the top, selling & profit taking) coming and "anticipates" it and the Amateur thinks this time it will be different,or merely decides to play the Ultimate Fools Game to try to get that last tic' at the Top and ultimately ends up "reacting" to it.
I don't know about anyone else... but, I know I have made a helluva lot more money by "anticipating" than by "reacting."
Profit isn't really profit - untill you take it.
And if you don't "take it" in Cyclicals - someone else will; usually when you least expect it (vbg).
We all have to decide "how much & how often" we're going to pay ourselves; or if we're going to " let it ride" and allow Mr Market & the fickle winds of the IBD-esque Mo-Mo players determine when, how much and even "if" we ultimately get paid.
It's very similar to being a Professional Poker Player vs. an Amateur and given the recent mania in Poker...that's probably a good analogy.
"Professional" Poker Players know and respect the game, the math - the odds.
They develop a style and method of play that fits their personality, their emotional & psychological makeup and risk to reward tolerances....and most importantly - they stick to it.
- they are disciplined and they are patient - fiercely so.
- they know and study the game, but more importantly; they know, study and are able to read the players.
- they occassionally go with their "gut" - but earn 90% of their money with their "brains"...they respect the math, the odds and "the game" itself.
- they also need to know "when" they are playing against the players & not so much the game itself. Knowing that "when" is what separates the pretenders from the contenders and is what determines who will be sitting at the final table.
Not much different in the markets.
Sooner or later; when, not if; we will be "trading the traders" and not the underlying commodity, or company fundamentals themselves.
In my humble opinion - that's where the Pro's in the Market both make AND take their Money.
...Big` I will behave. I have some outside interests that keep me busy and I don't have time to post as much as I used to (probably a good thing) and it's probably best that I stay "double parked" at least for a while (I realize the potential for disrupting the thread) so I'll stop in for a cup of e-coffe from time to time and certainly owe a Thanks for the good work you & the posters here do... always a thread I read.
daBummer... Chinatown & the Hookers huh ?
- well, you weren't looking hard enough then (vbg).
And get ready to be coming back to Chicago this Fall...because the Cubbies will facing either your BoSox, or my Yankees.
Hopefully a healthy Nomar will bring the chants of "Sammy Who ?" by August.
And on LNG:
...I'm not talking about the symbol "LNG" - Cheniere Energy (not that it's a short by the way (vbg)...but, the Liquified Natural Gas play that is certainly in the early, early stages.
"LNG" - Cheniere just shows what speculative interest already lies in Liquified Natural Gas Plays.... 90% which we have yet to see.
Lot's of angles and risk to reward ways to play it.
XOM will add 20-something LNG tankers over the next decade.
$250 Billion will be spent on Cap Ex for developing LNG over the coming decade...one can play tankers, construction, pipelines, LNG asset holders etc.
You can play the known conservative side via the Exxons, or Conoco Phillips, or the speculative small caps like Cheniere....China plays like CNOOC/CEO etc
What I am referring to - is there will be many more "Cheniere's" to come...
There are 40-something proposals for LNG Terminals presently - something on the order of 12 have been approved...this is just the beginning in both the US and Internationally... India, China etc.
Lot's of speculative lotto ticket upside for those who are willing and able to think outside the box...and given the power of the internet today... those who take the road less followed and do their own research digging into information sources from - FERC, Environmental Agencies "and" Activists, US Coast Guard & State & Federal Governmental Agencies, as well as International Sources... will be able to find more than a few "Cheniere's" over the coming decade...
Good Luck all... don't forget to "get paid."
ciao` |
