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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: jim_p who wrote (39800)3/6/2005 11:00:30 AM
From: diana g  Read Replies (3) of 206199
 
Hi Jim,
I have great respect for your experience and have found your input very useful many times. I hope you won't see my disagreeing with you or questioning your conclusions as an attack or as disrespect. It certainly isn't meant that way.

I have a point to ask you about.

You wrote: "...You have the choice of learning from history and playing the oil cycles and making a lot of money, or trying to get that last 10% out of the market and losing 50-100% of your hard earned gains in a matter of weeks once the smart money leaves..."

If memory serves, you've been calling the top at least since last September? You've repeatedly called a top in the OSX 120-125 area? Since that time the OSX is up 20% and many of my favs are up 50-60% and more. Clearly that's not the "...last 10%.." of the up move, you have to admit. I know that when in the past the sector has sold off it has gone down quickly. But I think that at this point I could get out of my positions before a move down to Sept levels even if I had to send in the 'sell' orders by dogsled to NYC.
---- I don't mean to seem to pick on you for being wrong in Sept '04 and since. My record of being wrong is as poor as anyone's and I'm not casting any stones. And anyway I like the way you call it like you see it.
---- But here's the question. Since you were wrong then (in Sept & since), what do you see now as the reason you miscalculated then? What made you wrong the last 5-6 months about the cyclical top that is different now?

regards,
diana
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